Alyshah Abdul Sultan, research fellow1 2 3, Joe West, professor of epidemiology2, Matthew J Grainge, associate professor in medical statistics2, Richard D Riley, professor of biostatistics1, Laila J Tata, associate professor of epidemiology2, Olof Stephansson, senior researcher4 5, Kate M Fleming, senior lecturer in public health intelligence and statistics2 6, Catherine Nelson-Piercy, professor of obstetric medicine and consultant obstetric physician7, Jonas F Ludvigsson, professor of clinical epidemiology
Abstract
Objective To develop and validate a risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after delivery (early postpartum).
Design Cohort study.
Setting Records from England based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and data from Sweden based registry.
Participants All pregnant women registered with CPRD-HES linked data between 1997 and 2014 and Swedish medical birth registry between 2005 and 2011 with postpartum follow-up.
Main outcome measure Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a risk prediction model for postpartum venous thromboembolism based on the English data, which was externally validated in the Swedish data.
Results 433 353 deliveries were identified in the English cohort and 662 387 in the Swedish cohort. The absolute rate of venous thromboembolism was 7.2 per 10 000 deliveries in the English cohort and 7.9 per 10 000 in the Swedish cohort. Emergency caesarean delivery, stillbirth, varicose veins, pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum infection, and comorbidities were the strongest predictors of venous thromboembolism in the final multivariable model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. The model identified more venous thromboembolism events than the existing national English (sensitivity 68% v 63%) and Swedish guidelines (30% v 21%) at similar thresholds.
Conclusion A new prediction model that quantifies absolute risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism has been developed and externally validated. It is based on clinical variables that are available in many developed countries at the point of delivery and could serve as the basis for real time decisions on obstetric thromboprophylaxis.
BMJ
